Summary
This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in evapotranspiration (ET) from both porous media and surface water within the North Saskatchewan River Basin, implementing a fully distributed model. With a central hypothesis that global warming will lead to significant changes in the proportion of ET from these sources. The study focuses on three distinct regions: Mountains, Foothills, and Plains and their corresponding land uses. The study spans two modeled periods: historical (1983-2013) and far future (2070-2099), the latter utilizing datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the less optimistic climate change scenario (SSP585).
The results indicate significant shifts in ET patterns. In the mountains, annual mean ET is projected to increase by up to ~100% by 2099, despite increased precipitation. In the foothills, a shift in the relationship between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is observed, leading to changes in water loss dynamics, with porous media evaporation playing a crucial role. The plains region, historically facing water deficits, is projected to witness a transition from water shortage to surplus, with increased precipitation exceeding ET. Additionally, the study reveals a shift in the sources of water supplying ET, emphasizing the role of porous media evaporation over surface evaporation. Overall, according to the simulated results under the climate change scenario SSP585 across the entire watershed, ET is projected to increase in all land uses, with forests experiencing the greatest water loss through ET in the three regions.
The results indicate significant shifts in ET patterns. In the mountains, annual mean ET is projected to increase by up to ~100% by 2099, despite increased precipitation. In the foothills, a shift in the relationship between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is observed, leading to changes in water loss dynamics, with porous media evaporation playing a crucial role. The plains region, historically facing water deficits, is projected to witness a transition from water shortage to surplus, with increased precipitation exceeding ET. Additionally, the study reveals a shift in the sources of water supplying ET, emphasizing the role of porous media evaporation over surface evaporation. Overall, according to the simulated results under the climate change scenario SSP585 across the entire watershed, ET is projected to increase in all land uses, with forests experiencing the greatest water loss through ET in the three regions.
Author's Contact Information: Luis Carlos Serrano-Diaz. Geologist M.Sc. Student | Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Alberta | Edmonton | Canada Email: [email protected] |